Posted by
GFC on Tuesday, February 24, 2009 11:17:59 AM
Has President Obama had anything good to say about the economy since being elected? Perhaps, but if so, it has been far outweighed by his cataclysmic predictions. A change is likely to come soon though--a return to hope.
Following the advice of his chief of staff, Mr. Obama has worked hard to wring political gain out of the economic crisis. The push to get the stimulus passed and passed quickly was motivated by political rather than economic concerns. There were two primary political gains to be made from swift passage of the stimulus bill.
First, with one notable exception, recessions going back 100 years haven't lasted very long. Typical recessions have lasted 8-12 months. The more severe recessions lasted around 16 months. This current recession has already been with us more than 12 months so if history is any guide the economy will likely turn around soon and would have done so even without the stimulus. The problem for Mr. Obama is that if the economic recovery began before the stimulus passed, it would be hard for him to claim credit for the recovery. Swift passage was necessary so he could employ the post hoc ergo promter hoc logical fallacy to extoll his own virtues and responsiblity for recovery. Now he can claim the stimulus caused the recovery even though the economy should begin recovering before the stimulus has a chance to do much of anything. He most likely won't be asked to show a causal connection between recovery and stimulus, it will just be taken for granted.
Second, the urgency of the moment provided convenient cover for the insertion of pet programs and projects that have nothing to do with economic stimulus. Many programs that would otherwise have faced stiff public opposition and perhaps successful blocking efforts in the Senate were squeezed through without debate, with a minimal expenditure of political capital and as far from the next election as possible (i.e. it gives the electorate the most time possible to forget about the disturbing elements supported by their congressmen and senators). The Democrats have achieved Mr. Emanuel's goal of not letting the crisis go to waste.
Now that the Democrats and Mr. Obama have set the stage to take credit for the likely inevitable economic recovery and have succeeded in achieving numerous, long-dormant political objectives, they need to ensure that they don't sieze defeat from the jaws of victory. Blaming Bush will only succeed for so long. They will face the consequences if the economy doesn't begin to recover.
This means it is time to change their tune. Expect to start hearing about signs of recovery. Expect President Obama to start saying that he believes that we are ready for recovery. He will surely hedge his bets in case things get worse, but as Mr. Clinton recently advised, he will start to sound more positive. We stood on the brink of depression, but we acted fast and are ready to recover. If we embrace hope and turn from fear, things will get better. All we have to fear is fear itself. President Obama has the oratory skill to make things seem good and he will want to make it so.