Posted by
GFC on Wednesday, February 11, 2009 10:31:52 AM
Why does President Obama want the stimulus plan passed as quickly as possible. As Thomas Sowell phrases it in today's "Random Thoughts" column, "[t]he worst case scenario for the administration would be to have the economy begin to recover on its own before this massive spending bill is passed." Sowell seems to focus on the liklihood that if this happens, it will be harder to get all the goodies the Democrats want, but there is another possible motivation for wanting passage of the bill before recovery. If the economy begins to recover before the Democrats can do anthing to "fix" it, it will be harder for them to claim much credit for the recovery. They need to have something, anything, in place before any recovery begins so they can claim that their program saved us from the crisis.
This is also the reason that it is dangerous for Republicans to stake out too strong a claim that the stimulus will fail. If the economy recovers (not because of the "stimulus", but in spite of it) while the Republicans are predicting that the "stimulus" will fail, it will be very difficult if not impossible to convince the public that the "stimulus" and recovery are not connected. Though it is a logical fallacy, people often fail to realize that when one event follows the other, it doesn't mean the first was the cause of the second. Democrats will certainly be underterred by the lack of true connection between recovery and stimulus and will proclaim not only that their program caused recovery, but that Republicans wrongly predicted failure. This will be an emotionally, if not logically, convincing argument and will succeed in the court of public opinion.
Republicans need to recognize and prepare for this coming argument. The stimulus likely is going to do little if anything to contribute to economic recovery, but it won't necessarily prevent that recovery. Republicans need to begin spreading the message that they have confidence in our economy and that they believe it will recover in the next year or so. They need to say that some plans will make the recovery happen faster and that others will make the recovery happen more slowly, but that recovery will happen.
The Democrats are in the midst of an effort to lower expectations; the Republicans should do the opposite. They should raise expectations and be the voice of optomism. They need to express confidence in our system and people. They need to say that we don't need the government to recover. They need to start proclaiming that economic recovery is not dependant on the Democrat policies and will happen despite not because of them. They need to argue that only excessive government intervention will stall recovery. If the Democrats get too involved, if they do too much to entangle the gears that drive the economy, the recovery will be stalled or destroyed.
The economy may actually get better, or it may get worse. Either way the Republicans can benefit if they take this approach. If the economy fails to recover, Republicans can take credit for accurately predicting that the "stimulus" was poorly targeted, wasteful and stifling. If the economy improves, Republicans can say that they had already predicted that it would thereby minimizing Democrat gains from that improvement.
The worst position for Republicans is to say that the Stimulus will fail, then be faced with an economy that recovers anyway. Predict recovery so the Democrats won't be the only ones who said the economy will recover under their plan. Begin separating their plan from potential for improvement.