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Is Biden More Popular Than Obama?

[tongue in cheek]
So during this recent election cycle the President goes to New Jersey and Virginia to campaign for the Democrat candidates who both lose and lose bad.  Biden goes to New York to support the Democrat and he becomes the first Democrat to win there since the civil war.  This raises the question "is Biden now more popular and influential than the President".
[/tongue in cheek]
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NY-23

How is a win by the Conservative a bad thing for the Republican party?  He will support them on just about everything in Congress, so what is the danger there?
 
Oh, but if he takes too many votes from the Republican, the Democrat could slip in.  So?  There isn't much difference between him and the Republican in this race.  More importantly the Democrats are already in control and the left wing already can push just about anything it wants to through congress.  Neither the Republican, nor the Conservative is going to be able to stop Pelosi this coming year, so it doesn't really matter if they lose.
 
If the Democrat is the incumbent, won't he have an advantage in 2010?  Probably not in a strongly Republican district.  Probably not in a year when Democrats and their policies are likely to be very unpopular.
 
Isn't it better to get rid of a bad Republican candidate now, than have that candidate and the potential vote split in 2010?  If the Democrat wins, isn't that likely to encourage the Republican party to select a better candidate next time.  Maybe that candidate won't be a pure conservative, but at least that candidate can be distinguishable from a Democrat unlike the current one.
 
One big problem with the Republican party at the moment is that it is in a battle with itself over its identity.  This problem needs to be fixed and fixed soon if it is to reverse the losses of recent years.  The party has been centrist during the past several years, and things have not gone well for it.  It is time for it to move away from the center, to purge those who are indistinguishable from Democrats and to give the people a clear and distinct choice.
 
This race is a place where that process can begin.  The worst thing that can happen for the Republican party is for the Republican in this race to win.
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Hypocracy

"Hypocrite" is a powerful word.  It has the power to delegitimize one so labeled.  But, this word is often misused in the modern political environment.  Often the label is used where no true hypocracy exists, yet despite that, it can destroy the perceived hypocrite.
 
Consider the example of the drunk who supports laws restricting the availability of alcohol.  Is such a person a hypocrite if he abstains at all times knowing he can't handle the drink?  No.  What if he drinks from time to time?  No.  Is he a hyprocrite if he gets plastered on a regular basis?  No.  Why isn't he a hypocrite?  Because he knows that alcohol causes great damage to himself and others and wants to see the end of that damage.  His failings and inability to do that which he knows or believes to be right do not make him a hypocrite.
 
Constrast this person to the man who holds political office.  This man passes laws banning alcohol, yet has his own personal stash.  He tells himself and others "I don't have a problem with it, so I don't need to follow the law."  Never mind that others can also handle their alcohol as well as this politician.  There is one standard for the general public and another for this man.
 
A more realistic example in today's political climate is the politician who denounces CEO's for their greed and decadance.  They shouldn't have private jets, stay in fancy hotels, drive nice cars, live in mansions, have servants or dine on expensive cuisine.  This very politician may well enjoy every one of these perks, but it is ok for him.  He is the servant of the people so his exesses are tolerable.
 
Or consider the union leader who continuously deplores the greed of the business owner who takes advantage of the common worker.  The evil owner stays at nice hotels, has meetings in places like Vegas and Orlando, and keeps from the workers their fair compensation.  Ignore the fact that the union leader makes considerably more than the ordinary worker (the ordinary worker who incidently pays the union leader's salary), frequently uses the dues paid by the worker to jet off to conferences in places like Vegas and Orlando free of charge, stays in nice hotels while there, (again this is paid for by the worker) and spends a good deal of the time golfing and luxuriating in a manner remarkably similar to the evil business owner.  Never mind the fact that the worker buys the union leader's car and pays for his gas.  It is the owner who is evil for paying the worker rather than charging the worker.  It is the owner who is evil for enjoying the very same perks the union leader enjoys.  It is the owner who is evil despite the fact that he gives the worker gainful employment.
 
Leaders in communist countries often have a standard of living that far exceeds that of the normal worker.  They are working for the people's benefit.  They are ensuring that the evil wealthy business owners don't get more than the fair share.  But they have a different standard for themselves.  There may be something very wrong with the privileged and wealthly business owner, but there is nothing wrong with the privileged and wealthy government official.
 
Each of these are examples of true and despicable hypocracy.  These people have one standard for themselves and another for everyone else.  This hypocracy isn't just to be found in economic issues, but is to be found in social and moral issues as well.
 
It is easy to call an adulterous politician who supports family values a hypocrite, but often this may be a mischaracterization.  Does he hold one standard for himself and a different one for everyone else?  The politician who acknowledges that he is wrong is no hypocrite.  The true hyporcrite is the politician or reporter who excoriorates the adulterer while carrying on his own affair believing there is nothing wrong with what he is doing.
 
Pornography is a widespread scourge in our society today.  Undoubtably many who oppose pornography and would wish to see its prevalance diminish struggle with the desire to view it.  They may often lose in this struggle.  Does this make them hypocrites?  No.  They know that it is wrong, that it brings destruction to their own life as well as to those who create it.  They would like a world where the temptation has been removed and they will no longer succumb to it.  The hypocrite is the one who calls for bans, yet finds nothing wrong with his own collection.  He says others shouldn't have it but permanately exempts himself from that same standard.
 
No one who holds high moral standards is able to live up to them at all times.  We all have weaknesses and shortcomings.  We all fail to live in the manner we know to be right.  This does not make us hypocrites.
 
Some have very low standards of personal behavior.  They never fail to meet their standards because the standards are so low that failure is not possible.  The person with the high standards who fails from time to time is not a worse person than the person who perfectly follows his nonexistent standards.  Often it is the person with no standards who is the hypocrite.  He finds nothing wrong with a libertine sexual life, yet condemns those who fail to live up to their own high standards regarding sexuality.
 
All to often in today's political debate we listen to hypocrites who hold one standard for themselves, who openly and unabashedly engage in the very behavior they condemn, and hold a very different standard for others.  At the very same time we ignore and delegitimize people who know what is right and who want to do what is right because these people sometimes fail to do what is right. 
 
Many, not wanting to seem hypocritical, won't speak out against things they know to be wrong because they struggle with those very same issues.  But what is wrong with trying to push society in the right direction, with trying to create an environment in which it will be easier to overcome the destructive temptions with which we all struggle?  A person pushing for that which he believes to be right, should be constantly vigilant in his personal life, yet the unavoidable stumble from time to time should be a cause for silence and disengagement.  He should instead pick himself up, dust himself off and continue on the path toward that which is right taking care to be vigilent lest he stumble again.
 
Those who are tempted to dismiss the "hypocrite" ought to be careful before doing so.  Is the flaw true hypocracy, or has the man simply failed on occasion to do that which he knows is right?  Is he constantly fighting against his personal temptations and seeking improvement?  If he trying to hold himself to the same standard he seeks for all?  If so listen and help as he pushes for that which is right.  Support him as he fights his personal tempations.
 
 
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Environmentalists Don't Like Clean Energy Either

See my global warming blog for examples of environmentalists opposing clean, carbon free energy.  Environmentalists Don't Like Clean Energy Either.
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No We Can't

Can we provide for ourselves? No we can’t. We need the government to give us healthcare, jobs, retirement and anything else we may need in our lives.

Can we be proud of our country? No we can’t. We need to apologize to the world for our country.

Can we move beyond racial tensions? No we can’t. Anyone who expresses disagreement with any policy is to be branded a racist.

Can we drill for oil? No we can’t. We will destroy the planet. We are incapable of finding ways to do it cleanly, so we must continue to import it from nations who don’t like us. (But don’t worry, since we have embraced their view of our nation as an evil place, they will start liking us now).

Can we expand nuclear power? No we can’t. Look how many people die every year from nuclear power plants problems. (Wait, no nuclear power plant failure outside of a single event in the USSR, has killed anyone???)

Can we care for our neighbor? Why should we? That is the government’s job. In fact we should tax the money that people use to care for their neighbors. After all, that is the government’s job, not the citizen’s.

Can we have reasonable limits on abortions—for example requiring doctors to care for children born alive after a botched abortion? No we can’t. Any limit no matter how small is too much.

Can we avoid raising taxes on the middle class? No we can’t.   The government needs their money to protect them from themselves. They won’t buy health insurance they can’t afford, so they need to be forced to buy the insurance. Some of them have really good health care plans, and that isn’t fair to people whose plans aren’t as good.

Can we let people pick what they want covered by insurance and what they don’t want covered. No we can’t. The government knows what the citizen needs better than the citizen.

Can we let people pick the insurer they want even if that insurer is out of state? No we can’t. That insurer might not offer coverage of something that the citizen doesn’t want or need coverage for.

Can we punish the rich who do wrong, while leaving those who don’t alone? No we can’t. ALL the rich, every last one of them, are greedy, evil, exploiters who need to be punished. They do not create jobs, give to charity or provide capital for growing business. They, each and every one of them, are a scourge on our society. If you work hard, make wise decisions and manage to become one of them, you will become evil as well.

Can we protect countries that like us and want our aid? No we can’t. It might make the countries that don’t like us not like us.

Can we stand in solidarity with people who are oppressed by their government and offer them our moral support if nothing else? No we can’t. We want their brutal leaders to like us.

Can we support a country which seeks to prevent the destruction of its constitution? No we can’t. Instead we must apply pressure on the government to reinstall a wannabe dictator who wishes to shred the constitution with an illegal and fraudulent election.

Can we support a Nobel Peace Prize winner whose country has been conquered and oppressed? No we can’t? We need to make that oppressive country like us, and not do anything that might make them uncomfortable.

Can we drive the car we want to? No we can’t? The government needs to tell us which cars to use. The best are the small ones that crumple up like tin cans if you hit a pothole too hard. Some of you may die, but that is a risk I’m willing to take.

Can we read and debate legislation that will cause massive deficits, or major overhauls to our economy and health care? No we can’t. We must trust that the powers that be know what they are doing even though they don’t even really know what is in the legislation.

Can we speak up when we feel that we are being deceived and lied to with almost every word? No we can’t. It would be uncivil to tell someone he is lying while he is telling you that you are lying.

Can we win in Iraq? No we can’t! Oh wait…

Can we win in Afghanistan? No we can’t. We need to pull out and let them handle their own affairs. I am sure that terrorists who are fighting us while we are there will stop fighting us once we leave. I mean, they weren’t fighting us before we showed up. Besides who cares about the people in that country who will be oppressed by the Taliban once we leave. Acid splashed in the face, beatings and public executions aren’t really that bad.

Can we stop Iran and North Korea from getting nuclear weapons and the systems to deliver them? No we can’t. Besides why should we? They are ruled by nice, kind-hearted governments who really care for their people and international harmony.

Can we let the private sector create jobs? No we can’t. After all that isn’t how we became the strongest military and economic force in the world. We got that way after 200+ years of intense government direction of all aspects of the economy.

Can we lower taxes to encourage economic growth? No we can’t. When has that ever worked?

Can we let banks make lending decisions based on the ability of the borrower to repay?  No we can’t. The banks might not make those risky loans. What harm could come from a large volume of loans that cannot be repaid?

Can we buy the TV that we want? Can we use the light bulbs we want? No we can’t. The world is melting.

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Obama Will Listen to the Opposition But…

President Obama loves to say that he is willing to listen to opposition ideas, but then follows such statements with some variation of the idea that he won’t listen to the ideas that created the mess in which we now find ourselves. If you want to help clean up the mess you made, grab a mop. Don’t tell me how to use it. I don’t want those who created the mess telling me how to clean it up. Opposing ideas are dismissed without even the most cursory glance at their merits.

I would like to know which policies exactly are to blame. Even if every single thing that was done by President Bush was wrong can we at least have a list of those policies so we can distinguish between them and opposition ideas which were never implemented. 

It may come as a surprise to the general population, but Republicans didn’t get to do everything they would have liked to during the Bush Presidency. Many of their policies were never tried. The Democrats had control of the House and Senate for two years, and shared control of the Senate for an additional year. Throughout the entire Bush Presidency, the Democrats in the Senate had enough members to mount filibusters to stop any legislation they wanted to stop.

So, before the President dismisses an idea as one that was tried and which failed, can we at least determine whether or not it was actually tried?

That is only the first step though. If the policy the president wishes to dismiss was tried, it does not follow that it was responsible the current mess. A great football team with a great game plan can still lose thanks to a couple of turnovers. Flawed execution of a great plan causes a loss. Should the plan be scrapped, or should the effort be to improve execution.

Even if a plan was actually followed, and it was executed to perfection, it still may not be the cause of a failure. Perhaps outside factors caused the problem. Let me return to football. If a team scores 50 points and loses, the problem probably isn’t the offense. Perhaps the defense needs a bit of work. An offense can score a touchdown on every possession and still lose, if the defense and special teams perform poorly enough.

What specific ideas are the proven failures? Was it tax cuts? I’ve never heard the president explain how tax cuts caused the recession. If he thinks they did cause the recession he should have raised taxes as one of his first priorities.   Instead, the significant tax increases seem to be on hold until the economy is on a better footing.

Was it deficit spending? The president surely can’t think that was the problem given the fact that he thinks that deficit spending is the cure.

Was it a flawed health care system? Other nations with the sort of healthcare he advances suffered from the world wide downturn as well. And how exactly are the housing bubble, and related securities problems connected to health care? I am still waiting for the in depth analysis that shows health care is a root cause of the economic troubles of the past year.

It would be nice if the President would present arguments against specific ideas and proposals. He should explain how “bad” ideas were actual causes of the problems. He should be sure that those ideas were actually implemented and implemented well. He should describe how those ideas truly caused the problem showing that they weren’t just great ideas surrounded by unrelated flawed policies that doomed them to failure. Even once he has established all of this, he should listen to the counterpoints made by the other side. Perhaps they have an explanation he has missed. He should, but he won’t. He isn’t interested in truth, or prudent, reasoned analysis. He is simply interested in pushing his own ideas, and ignoring others.

Joe Wilson was right. The president does lie. He has no intention of listening to what the opposition says. He wants them to agree without question. He has no interest in understanding and examining their ideas.

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Marxism in the Early Christian Church?

Today on the Hannity radio show a caller used the example of the early Christian church to support Marxist thinking.  Hannity frequently guides liberal callers into agreeing with a modified version of the Marxist motto "from each according to his ability to each according to his need."  The caller used the early Christian church to argue essentially that this redistributive thinking is Biblically proper, yet for all his puffing about his theological creditials, the caller misses key distinctions between the practice of that early church and marxist/socialist/progressive/[insert your favorite label for the same general idea here] government.
 
The passage at issue, Acts 4, describes the behavior of members of the early church who gave what they had to the church which would then distribute needed resources to other church members.  Because of this, no member of the church lacked the things he needed.  This passage is a favorite of those who believe the government should take from some and give to others, but consider these important differences betweeen the early church and governments today.
 
First, this passage deals with the church, not the government.  It describes how the church behaved, (perhaps the church should still act that way, but that is not the issue here), and does not suggest that the government should do the same.  The church is also supposed to celebrate the Lord's supper and has a mission to share the gospel with the lost; these are not the roles of government.
 
Second, the people who were giving were doing so voluntarily, not under compulsion.  When the government seeks to redistribute there is no choice, you must pay the taxes and don't get to choose how much you want to pay.  Today there are plenty of churches and charities to which people can and do voluntarily give thereby following the example of the early church. 
 
Some may argue that giving was not voluntary by pointing to Acts 5 where two members of the church chose to hold back rather than giving all to the church.  They end up being killed by God for doing so.  This argument misses what actually happens in the passage.  The husband and wife sold land, gave some of the proceeds to the church and held some for themselves.  The problem was that they lied and said that they had given all to the church.  The apostle Peter says that the land was theirs as were the profits, then asks why they lied.  They are condemned because of the lie, not because they held back.  The giving in the early church was voluntary and it was fine to not give everything so long as the people were honest about what they were doing.
 
The third and final point to make about the early church giving is that the distribution of the donations was to the members of the church rather than the populace as a whole.  This is not to suggest that no money should ever be giving to other poor, but to point out that the church was making sure that the members had their needs met.
 
Put these three ideas together.  The people of the early church voluntarily gave to help other members of the local church.  This was not about the government forcefully taking from some to give to others.  It was about individuals freely and voluntarily helping other individuals.
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Obama To Return To Hope?

Has President Obama had anything good to say about the economy since being elected?  Perhaps, but if so, it has been far outweighed by his cataclysmic predictions.  A change is likely to come soon though--a return to hope.
 
Following the advice of his chief of staff, Mr. Obama has worked hard to wring political gain out of the economic crisis.  The push to get the stimulus passed and passed quickly was motivated by political rather than economic concerns.  There were two primary political gains to be made from swift passage of the stimulus bill.
 
First, with one notable exception, recessions going back 100 years haven't lasted very long.  Typical recessions have lasted 8-12 months.  The more severe recessions lasted around 16 months.  This current recession has already been with us more than 12 months so if history is any guide the economy will likely turn around soon and would have done so even without the stimulus.  The problem for Mr. Obama is that if the economic recovery began before the stimulus passed, it would be hard for him to claim credit for the recovery.  Swift passage was necessary so he could employ the post hoc ergo promter hoc logical fallacy to extoll his own virtues and responsiblity for recovery.  Now he can claim the stimulus caused the recovery even though the economy should begin recovering before the stimulus has a chance to do much of anything.  He most likely won't be asked to show a causal connection between recovery and stimulus, it will just be taken for granted.
 
Second, the urgency of the moment provided convenient cover for the insertion of pet programs and projects that have nothing to do with economic stimulus.  Many programs that would otherwise have faced stiff public opposition and perhaps successful blocking efforts in the Senate were squeezed through without debate, with a minimal expenditure of political capital and as far from the next election as possible (i.e. it gives the electorate the most time possible to forget about the disturbing elements supported by their congressmen and senators).  The Democrats have achieved Mr. Emanuel's goal of not letting the crisis go to waste.
 
Now that the Democrats and Mr. Obama have set the stage to take credit for the likely inevitable economic recovery and have succeeded in achieving numerous, long-dormant political objectives, they need to ensure that they don't sieze defeat from the jaws of victory.  Blaming Bush will only succeed for so long.  They will face the consequences if the economy doesn't begin to recover.
 
This means it is time to change their tune.  Expect to start hearing about signs of recovery.  Expect President Obama to start saying that he believes that we are ready for recovery.  He will surely hedge his bets in case things get worse, but as Mr. Clinton recently advised, he will start to sound more positive.  We stood on the brink of depression, but we acted fast and are ready to recover.  If we embrace hope and turn from fear, things will get better.  All we have to fear is fear itself.  President Obama has the oratory skill to make things seem good and he will want to make it so.
 
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The Little Biases That Kill

Yesterday on NBC's Today Show one of the pieces was about things to look for to see if the stimulus is working.  The piece turned out to be about signs that the economy is recovering.  The two are not the same.  The point of the stimulus is to make the economy get better, but economic improvement won't necessarily be because of the stimulus.  If I pour orange die into the ground at the base of an orange tree and the oranges end up orange, it isn't because of the die I poured.  Oranges turn orange, die or no die.
 
Expect this sort of subtle bias to continue.  Democrats and their supporters will seldom offer details about how the stimulus and economic recovery are connected.  They will just say the stimulus is working because the economy is getting better.  Republicans need to start countering this faulty reasoning before it has managed to persuade those unwilling to perform their own analysis.
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Obama Revisionist History

I have a few thoughts on the following statement by President Obama during Monday's press conference.
 
"But what I -- what I've been concerned about is some of the language that's been used suggesting that this is full of pork and this is wasteful government spending, so on and so forth.  First of all, when I hear that from folks who presided over a doubling of the national debt, then I just want them to not engage in some revisionist history. I inherited the deficit that we have right now, and the economic crisis that we have right now."
Funny that you mention revisionist history Mr. Obama.  Your party had control of both houses the past two years.  You were even a senator in the majority during that time.  Perhaps, just maybe, you and your party helped to shape the budget during that time.  Every time you say "the last eight years" you should be saying "the 6 years before my party gained control of the legislature in 2007".  Then you would be avoiding the revisionist history to which you object.
 
Coincidently, the deficits ballooned and the economic crisis hit at this same time.
 
Isn't your biggest objection to Republican fiscal policy during the years before the Democrats gained control of the legislature that they shouldn't have cut taxes?  You seem much more bothered by that than by excessive spending.  Why aren't massive tax increases part of your "stimulus" bill.  Is it perhaps because you know that tax cuts help stimulate the economy, create jobs and fend off recession?
 
Why is deficit spending bad when Republicans do it, but good when you do it?  Sure Republicans had deficit spending, but you propose much greater quanties of it.  Do you not see the difference between a little deficit spending and massive amounts of it?  Perhaps drinking a few beers isn't good, but is a person who drinks a few beer wrong for saying downing gallons of hard liquor is a bad idea?
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Be Cautious Predicting Stimulus Failure

Why does President Obama want the stimulus plan passed as quickly as possible.  As Thomas Sowell phrases it in today's "Random Thoughts" column, "[t]he worst case scenario for the administration would be to have the economy begin to recover on its own before this massive spending bill is passed."  Sowell seems to focus on the liklihood that if this happens, it will be harder to get all the goodies the Democrats want, but there is another possible motivation for wanting passage of the bill before recovery.  If the economy begins to recover before the Democrats can do anthing to "fix" it, it will be harder for them to claim much credit for the recovery.  They need to have something, anything, in place before any recovery begins so they can claim that their program saved us from the crisis.
 
This is also the reason that it is dangerous for Republicans to stake out too strong a claim that the stimulus will fail.  If the economy recovers (not because of the "stimulus", but in spite of it) while the Republicans are predicting that the "stimulus" will fail, it will be very difficult if not impossible to convince the public that the "stimulus" and recovery are not connected.  Though it is a logical fallacy, people often fail to realize that when one event follows the other, it doesn't mean the first was the cause of the second.  Democrats will certainly be underterred by the lack of true connection between recovery and stimulus and will proclaim not only that their program caused recovery, but that Republicans wrongly predicted failure.  This will be an emotionally, if not logically, convincing argument and will succeed in the court of public opinion.
 
Republicans need to recognize and prepare for this coming argument.  The stimulus likely is going to do little if anything to contribute to economic recovery, but it won't necessarily prevent that recovery.  Republicans need to begin spreading the message that they have confidence in our economy and that they believe it will recover in the next year or so.  They need to say that some plans will make the recovery happen faster and that others will make the recovery happen more slowly, but that recovery will happen.
 
The Democrats are in the midst of an effort to lower expectations; the Republicans should do the opposite.  They should raise expectations and be the voice of optomism.  They need to express confidence in our system and people.  They need to say that we don't need the government to recover.  They need to start proclaiming that economic recovery is not dependant on the Democrat policies and will happen despite not because of them.  They need to argue that only excessive government intervention will stall recovery.  If the Democrats get too involved, if they do too much to entangle the gears that drive the economy, the recovery will be stalled or destroyed.
 
The economy may actually get better, or it may get worse.  Either way the Republicans can benefit if they take this approach.  If the economy fails to recover, Republicans can take credit for accurately predicting that the "stimulus" was poorly targeted, wasteful and stifling.  If the economy improves, Republicans can say that they had already predicted that it would thereby minimizing Democrat gains from that improvement.
 
The worst position for Republicans is to say that the Stimulus will fail, then be faced with an economy that recovers anyway.  Predict recovery so the Democrats won't be the only ones who said the economy will recover under their plan.  Begin separating their plan from potential for improvement.
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Obama's Stimulus Fantasy Land

AP writer Liz Sidoti wrote this article about President Obama's recent speech at the Democrat Congressional Retreat.  http://townhall.com/news/politics-elections/2009/02/06/obama_asks_democrats_to_quickly_pass_stimulus_plan?page=full&comments=true
 
Most of the article is good reporting stating simple facts and quoting from the President's speech.  Those quotes will be addressed in a bit, but the author did reflect a bit of bias with the following comment.

"Since his inauguration two weeks ago, the president repeatedly has reached across the aisle to Republicans as his economic plan has wound its way through the Democratic-controlled Congress."
 
The President has not reached across the isle.  He has show no willingness to accept GOP ideas.  He wants to shove through the Democrat plan and expects Republicans to not only silently assent, but to offer their support of a plan they have not been allowed to help create.  The reaching across the isle is purely for show.  If he were truely interested in reaching across the isle, he would cut the proposals to which the Republicans have the strongest objections, and would accept some of the ideas which the Republicans offer.  He has not said he wants to do this nor pressured the House or Senate leadership to compromise.  There has been no bipartisanship by the President yet. 
 
The President's comments are worth examining.  Consider these two statements he made.
 
" 'We are not going to get relief by turning back to the very same policies that for the last eight years doubled the national debt and threw our economy into a tailspin,' Obama said _ an implicit criticism of the GOP that was in power during that period."
 
" 'I found this deficit when I showed up,' Obama said, earning a standing ovation. 'I found this national debt doubled, wrapped in a big bow waiting for me when I stepped into the Oval Office.' "
 
The President complains about a doubled national debt in the same speech in which he encourages Congress to massively increase national debt.  Does anything more need to be said?  Those guys were bad; they spent more money than they had.  Hey let's spend more money than we have even faster than those guys did while at the same time scolding them for doing the same thing though on a smaller scale.  Unbelievable.
 
The other idea in the above quotes which needs to be refuted is the idea that the GOP were solely responsible for the economic policy of the past eight years.  For six years the economy grew, then the Democrats gained control of the House and Senate.  One year later this recession began.  Also, the defection of Jim Jeffords gave the Democrats control of the Senate for most of the first two years of the Bush presidency.  This means that the Democrats had control of at least the Senate for half of the Bush presidency.  They should shoulder at least some of the blame for the current situation.
 
The President says he wants to be bipartisan, yet ignores everything the other party wants to do.  The President complains about debt incurred the past eight years, yet is pushing as hard as possible for an increase in the debt.  The President blames Republicans for the economy, yet Democrats were in control of the legislature when the recession began.  His words are hollow.  There is no truth in them.
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Politicizing Stimulus

President Obama has been calling for Republicans to not politicize the stimulus package.  He doesn't need any Republican votes to pass the package so why does it matter what Republicans say about it or how they vote. 
The only way Republicans can stop any package is with a near unanimous fillibuster attempt.  Perhaps this is the sort of politicizing to which Mr. Obama is opposed, but it doesn't appear that Republicans are likly to do this.  The other Republican option is to pull Democrats into opposition.  If they succeeded in doing this wouldn't it be the opposite of Politicizing the issue?
 
In fact that is exactly what happened when the economic crisis struck last year.  The package was put together.  The President, most congressional Democrats and a few Republicans supported it, but most Republicans and many Democrats opposed the package.  The first attempt to pass it failed.  It eventually passed though there was still significant opposition on both sides of the isle. 
 
The lesson from this recent episode is that opposition to a massive, rushed stimulus package can bring the parties together.  Republicans opposed it even though it was there President who was pushing it and a significant number of Democrats opposed it even though it was the opposition's President who proposed it.  Party wasn't attempting to gain advantage over party, rather individual representatives were making a tough choice with less partisan thinking than is generally present.
 
How then is current opposition to a additional massive, rushed stimulus package suddenly politicizing the issue?  Republican opposition hasn't changed in any substantive way.  It wasn't partisan then and it isn't partisan now.  The Democrats who opposed the package before, may support it currently, but that is likely to be because they don't have an election looming in front of them.  The more conservative Democrats may have opposed the package before knowing that it wasn't popular with their constituents. 
 
Perhaps the best way to measure the politicization of stimulus is to track the Democrats who once opposed it with their votes and now support it.  Were they just making a political calculation to keep office in the near-term knowing that if they retained their seats they could then pass a similar measure?  The electorate has two years to forget about the stimulus and government intrusions on the private sector which come with it.  There was more Democrat risk in supporting stimulus then compared to now.
 
President Obama is the one person most responsible for politicization of stimulus.  He seeks political cover.  If Republicans oppose the stimulus and it goes bad, Democrats will be in trouble.  They control the government and the successes and failures are theirs.  If Republicans support stimulus and it all goes bad, the Democrats can claim that they aren't to blame because after all even the Republicans thought it was a good idea.
 
In the simplist terms, the economy can either get better or worse.  Republicans can either support or oppose stimulus.  This means there are basically four possible futures:  (1)Republican support & gets better, (2)Republican support & gets worse, (3)Republican opposition & gets better, (4)Republican opposition & gets worse.  Of these four options, the one with the most potential to help the Republicans and hurt the Democrats is number 4.  It is this eventuality President Obama wishes to avoid.  If number 1 happens Democrats as the party in power probably get more benefit than Republicans.  If number 2 happens it gets even better for Democrats.  If number 3 happens, at Democrats can claim Republicans offered no better to at least mitigate damage. 
 
Number 4 is scary for Democrats and President Obama.  They want to avoid that so they are politicizing stimulus while accusing the Republicans of doing so.  That is textbook hypocracy.
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Its Time to Move on From Wright and Ayers

President Elect Obama has some shady friends, associates, advisors and mentors. This is rather obvious to a disinterested observer. Obama partisans willingly blind themselves to the obvious, while anti-Obama partisans pull their hair out wondering why this issue failed to make a significant impact.  Sean Hannity's new lead in on his show is a compilation of various despicable statements made by Omama's former pastor and friends.  It is time to abandon this line of attack.

The 2008 election is over and the question must be asked “will these associations matter in 2012”. If not, the sooner this distraction is abandoned, the sooner an effective message can be adopted. The associations did matter, but in 2012 they will most likely be irrelevant and it is time to shift focus to something new.  His record over the next four years is what will matter in 2012, not the people he knew before 2008.

Why did the associations matter in 2008? Senator Obama was more or less a blank slate. His record offered little which could be scrutinized—little to indicate what rhetoric was true and what was feigned. Certainly there were the Illinois abortion votes, and the most liberal senator voting record, but the frequent “present” votes and avoidance of most controversy made the record incomplete to many observers. The lack of a strong pattern in his record made his rhetoric on the stump seem plausible to many. The record doesn’t reflect radical racial ideas, or radical Marxist ideas. His rhetoric did not reflect these ideas either. If one wants to believe that he does not hold these ideas, the rhetoric and record did not discourage doing so.

The problem is that a candidate has a motivation to say that which will get him elected rather than that which he truly believes, particularly if what he believes is not popular. Voters need to examine whether a candidate is attempting to pull the wool over their eyes rather than simply accepting the rhetoric as true. Where do you look if there is no record? Voluntary associations, advisors and mentors are the best place to look. People tend to associate with those whose ideas reflect their own. This may not always be true, but it is a good general rule.

Sometimes a person may have disparate group of friends, associates, mentors and the like who embrace a wide variety of disparate ideas. If someone has only four friends whose views on abortion range from desiring no restriction whatsoever on the practice to desiring an absolute bar on abortion regardless of circumstance, it will be difficult to assess that person’s belief on the issue. It is possible that he is pro-life, pro-choice or somewhere in between. If there is no record, then a gut feeling is about all one has to use when assessing whether he is telling the truth about his abortion beliefs.

If on the other hand the person’s only four friends are for abortion in every circumstance, and are even supportive of allowing survivors of failed abortions to die without aid, what is the most likely view of the person who has chosen these four friends? Should he really be believed if he says he is pro-life? Perhaps he is, but the evidence speaks otherwise.

Ayers, Wright and others mattered because they gave us a view into Obama’s true beliefs. He said that he sought out those with that sort of view while going to school. He then befriended and associated with them. There is a long pattern of seeking out and embracing this sort of view. Then in an unguarded moment on the campaign trail he uses very Marxist sounding language. All these pieces of evidence make a clear picture. He sought out Marxists in school, befriended them after school, and uses Marxist language today. It is reasonable to assume that he embraces some degree of Marxist thought, to think otherwise is to ignore all the evidence. The question is not so much whether this is what he believes, it is more a question of to what degree he embraces these ideas.

A voter in the 2008 election could not make an informed, intelligent choice without considering those whose company and ideas Obama sought out, but this will not be the case in 2012. If Obama does what he promised then we are given evidence that he is a man of his word and should have greater confidence that the 2012 election promises will likewise be kept. The record over the next four years will tell us how he is likely to govern the following four years. At the same time it will show that the dubious associations were not a true reflection of his true character and beliefs, or at the least that he is willing to curb idealism with pragmatism. Ayers and Wright will have no positive impact and quite likely a negative impact if things play out this way.

Most likely the promises of 2008 will have been discarded by 2012. This is the pattern that is all too familiar with politicians. His associations suggest he thinks and will act in a particular manner. If he does that which conservatives suspect, then the record of the next four years will be a far stronger line of attack than the associations that failed to sway opinions in 2008. In 2012 he can be hammered for what has done. In 2008 it was necessary to argue about what he likely would do. This isn’t a particularly strong attack and it failed. The associations were evidence of what he would likely do, but don’t have much relevance when exposing what he has done by 2012.

Not only has the limited effectiveness of the Ayers, Wright line of attack run its course, it is more and more likely to create a bigger and bigger backlash the longer it is pursued. This attack needs to be abandoned now. The election of 2008 is over. The focus needs to be 2010 and 2012. Ayers and Wright aren’t going to produce conservative wins in those years, but pursuit of this argument could help produce defeat. Conservatives need to avoid looking like loonies for clinging to conspiratorial, failed, attacks that have lost their relevance.

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Candy Companies Go Negative

 There is a town where the people love candy. In this town are two candy companies: Sweet Sweets and Shady Sugars Inc. These companies often run advertising campaigns promoting their product. For years this advertising conveyed a positive message. Each company extolled the virtues of its own product highlighting the flavor, texture and aesthetic appeal of its candy. Some years one company would sell more than another, in other years the trend would reverse. The people had no reason to prefer one company over another and would drift back and forth with the trends of the day.

This changed one day when Sweet Sweets scientists discovered that a new Shady Sugars Inc product, Frosty Blasts, contained a dangerous ingredient. Anyone who drank soda and ate a Frosty Blast within an hour of each other would be killed as the two otherwise harmless products reacted and exploded violently. Sweet Sweets brought this information to the authorities who did nothing, so Sweet Sweets came up with a new advertising campaign.

This campaign was very controversial. Rather than following the long tradition of only praising the quality of its own product, Sweet Sweets began to explain the dangers associated with the competitor’s product. Shady Sugars Inc. responded to the new campaign by denying the danger and condemning the new negative tone of its competitor. The people disgusted with Sweet Sweets’ negative advertising campaign turned in droves to Shady Sugars Inc. to satisfy the cravings of their collective sweet tooth. 

Sweet Sweets lost many of its customers because of the negative campaign, but many of those customers lost their lives because they failed to heed the negative but true and relevant warnings.

Is negative political advertising undesirable, something that should be excised from the political process? The answer is that it depends on what is meant by negative advertising. Some negative advertising has nothing to do with any issue that is relevant to the selection of a candidate. “Psst, did you now Candidate Smith’s uncle beats baby seals.” The actions of an uncle who Candidate Smith has never met and does not know are completely irrelevant. This sort of negative advertising should be avoided and condemned.

Candidates have learned though to mix that which is irrelevant with that which is relevant. They give both the same label and neatly avoid true and relevant criticism, and in the process of doing so even manage to make the opponent look like he is the one in the wrong. Voters likewise either fool themselves or allow others to do so, by ignoring that which, while uncomfortable to confront, must be confronted.

When two competing candidates have two equally good platforms with no hidden dangers or shortcomings, then there should be no negative advertising. The inconsequential differences in personal taste that makes someone choose Coke over Pepsi can, with no ill result, lead the voters to select one candidate over the other. This will almost never be the case in any election.

The more likely, and virtually universal circumstance, is that both candidates will have their share of good ideas as well as bad. A candidate can’t be relied on to expose the flaws of his own plan and is far more likely to do everything possible to hide them. Such exposure needs to come from another source. Voters cannot make an informed, wise decision if the flaws are hidden from them. If only the positive is raised, the result is a popularity contest rather than a examination and adoption of the better policy and rejection of the inferior one.

There is “good negative” and “bad negative” campaigning. The “good negative” is absolutely necessary for a healthy debate. It needs to be embraced rather than eschewed. It also needs to be publicly defended and praised. The candidate who needs to expose the dangers and flaws of his opponent’s position, can’t let that opponent label and dismiss those efforts as negative advertising/campaigning. He should instead invite the “good negative” attacks from his opponent and explain why his own such attacks are necessary, good and beneficial.   The “good negative” should be contrasted with the “bad negative”, and the power of the negative label needs to be sapped.

Embracing and even encouraging incoming “good negative” attacks can be an offensive weapon. The candidate who invites criticism can contrast himself with the candidate who hides from the same. Why is he hiding from debate? Why does he cry foul when I expose his flaws, but has no problem attempting to expose my flaws? I invite open honest critique, is that not something desirable in a candidate? If his plans are truly desirable, they will withstand criticism. It is the house of straw rather than the house of brick which fears the structural integrity test offered by strong wind.

My next post will continue with this theme to some extent and will look at other negative advertising that is good. This post has focused on critique of a politician’s ideas; the next will discuss critique of his character. Critique of character is less obviously a form a “good negative” campaigning but nevertheless it is as necessary as critique of his policies.

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